Diablo 3 deal, worth it?

At Blizzcon this year Blizzard has announced "the bomb": players who commit to 12 months of WoW subscriptions will get a free digital copy of Diablo 3! Is this wow or meh? It depends. I have made a quick analysis and if you're undecided, this might be for you.>

My analysis is purely financial and doesn't take the emotional aspect into consideration but since a large chunk of money is involved, I think it makes sense to figure out some numbers.

Notice that "committing" to a 12 month subscription does not require you to pay for the entire 12 months in advance. Nor does it require you to buy a 6 month package which is the highest one you can buy. This means that you can go month-by-month if you wish, but you'll have to engage in some sort of digital contract with Blizzard where they can be certain you will uphold your end of the bargain.

Currently you can pay month-by-month at $15 a month, for 3 months at $14 per month or for 6 months at $15 per month. My calculations are based on the two extremes but if you want to take this deal, the best thing is to go with two 6-month subscriptions, if you can afford it.

1. Month-to-month
Cost per month: $15
Cost for 12 months: $180
Real cost for 12 months (-$60 the value of Diablo 3): $120
@ $15 / month you will have to play $120 / $15 = 8 months of WoW to break even

2. 6 month subscription x 2
Cost per month: $13
Cost for 12 months: $156
Real cost for 12 months (-$60 the value of Diablo 3): $96

@ $13 / month you will have to play $96 / $13 = 7.4 months of WoW to break even

It sure seems like a long time to play WoW before you can call this a good deal. But wait, there's more. The "package" also includes an exclusive mount and access to WoW's next expansion (still not sure if this means Mists of Pandaria or the one after that, whatever that may be). While we can put a tentative value on the mount (mounts are $25 in Blizzard's store), beta access is a more subtle thing, something that can be either useless or priceless, depending who you ask.

So let's adjust our amounts by subtracting $25 for the mount.

1. Month-to-month
Cost per month: $15
Cost for 12 months: $180
Real cost for 12 months (-$60 the value of Diablo 3): $120
- $25 the cost of the mount: $95

@ $15 / month you will have to play $95 / $15 = 6.3 months of WoW to break even

2. 6 month subscription x 2

Cost per month: $13
Cost for 12 months: $156
Real cost for 12 months (-$60 the value of Diablo 3): $96
- $25 the cost of the mount: $71
@ $13 / month you will have to play $96 / $13 = 5.5 months of WoW to break even

As you can see, at the very least you will have to play 5 and a half months of WoW in order to break even on this deal.

There are more factors to consider at this point.

If you're not into Diablo 3 and you don't care about the other rewards, skip this deal.

If you're not into Diablo 3 but would like the mount and/or beta access, the deal is still good. Plus, you can donate your free copy of Diablo 3 to someone else.

If you are a die-hard WoW player and would also like to try Diablo 3, meaning that you are guaranteed to play WoW for at least 6 months, if not more, then this deal is killer. This is especially sweet if you know you'll be playing for another year.

If you're the type who gets bored with WoW 3 months into a new expansion, skip this deal. Just go month-to-month and buy Diablo 3 separately.

If you are still playing WoW between now and when Mists of Pandaria is released, now would be a great time to buy the deal. Just think about it. Assuming MoP is released around mid-2013, that gives you 6-8 months of solid play. When MoP hits, you have already broken even. From then on it's pure profit! Not to mention that you would have (presumably) also played a few months of free Diablo 3.

The bottom line is that you must think really hard if WoW will be fun for you for at least 6 months, or else you'll be throwing money out the window. There's also the matter of the guaranteed access to a future beta. If that is priceless to you, then by all means, get the deal.

At any rate, all this applies mostly if you are both a WoW and Diablo fan but you need to be aware that at some point in 2012 both games will be out and both will compete for your attention at the same time. Also, Mists of Pandaria will cost an additional $40, so take that also into consideration.

For me this deal is out of the question. Had Diablo 3 come out when Cataclysm was released, I might have been tempted. As it happens, I quit WoW for good about 2-3 months after the last expansion. I won't be returning to it any time soon.

Pandaria and me(h)

I'll have to admit that this year's Blizzcon took me by surprise. Seriously, Mists of Pandaria? Everyone and their grandma was hoping for a Pandaren expansion with a monk and/or brewmaster class. Instead, they got an expansion in the continent of Pandaria, with a monk class and a brewmaster spec. Duh.

I was a bit shocked because I never thought Blizzard would go in this direction. It seems to me they've been coyly denying any future dealings with Pandarens but what do I know? I'm not a big Warcraft buff.

So here we are, at Blizzcon 2011 and a lot of folks seem excited about the new expansion. Others, aren't so much. Oh, believe me, there are plenty of people who are just like me, namely meh. Still don't believe me? Here's a bunch of comments on Arstechnica.

Please understand that I'm not trolling or bitching or anything like that. I'm just trying to analyze this news from the perspective of someone who has quit WoW for many months and was just curious if there's the slightest reason to return to WoW with the next expansion. The way things look, there's no chance in hell I will return, not even if Diablo 3 weren't around the corner.

Another cute race doesn't do it for me. I'm thinking at this point that Blizzard is trying to appeal to the even younger demographic, perhaps in the 6-10 range. OK, I get it, older people also like fluffy things. Hell, I love fluffy things. I love cats, for example, but I would never own a pet. I love to look at them and play with them, as long as they're not mine. But I digress...

Another class seems a bit redundant at this point. There are already plenty of classes in WoW. The fact that this one doesn't seem to use weapons a lot is odd. I like my characters to use powerful weapons. You can always upgrade weapons but you can't upgrade your fists.

The total revamp of the talent tree has gotten old at this point. If I were playing WoW again I'd simply be tired of all these changes. I mean, it looks to me that Blizzard's philosophy these days is to revamp the talents and skills with every expansion. Just to keep things fresh, y'know.

Changing resource systems - yet again - is another thing that will potentially turn things upside-down for certain players. I'm talking about the warlock's resources (I haven't looked at other classes). C'mon, a different resource for every spec? Sheesh.

Combat between pets? Methinks Blizzard has run out of inspiration. I'm sure lots of people have swooned when they heard the news. I'm sure I would enjoy playing with my pets for a while - a short while. But how long until this, too, will grow stale? To me, this smells like a gimmick to keep players interested a little while longer. The person who thought of this must have felt like a genius: "Hey, I know how to keep players glued! We can give them combat pets! Just think about it: most players must have dozens of pets by now. If we add skills to them we can increase the time spent in WoW at least tenfold!"

A level cap of 90 seems to indicate a lack of content similar to Cataclysm. We all know how that went. Personally, I was bored with Cataclysm less than 2 months in. Will the same thing happen now? I bet not. Now there's kombat petz!!

In what has become a sort of tradition, Blizzard is pulling the no-flying-until-level-cap bullshit again. Another reason not to be drawn back to the game.

As far as grouping and quests and raids and dungeons, there's some nice stuff on the PvE side but nothing outstanding.

On the art side, I'll give it to Blizzard: they do know how to design some beautiful zones. Yet, something doesn't feel right to me. While it's all beautiful, Pandaria is a blatant copy of China. I believe they could have worked a bit harder to give it a general Asian flavor without making it specifically Chinese (not that there's anything wrong with China). There are other cultures and countries in Asia apart from China, such as India, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand and so on.

I've said what I had to say. It's not a collection of rants but merely my observations based on what I've seen so far. I'm sure there are many ex-WoW players who are looking for a good reason to return. While those who are still playing the game are thrilled with the new expansion I'm sure, I'm pretty positive that most of the ex-players aren't.

My feeling is that World of Warcraft is now past its prime and sliding on the inexorable slope of decline. Mists of Pandaria seems like a desperate attempt to keep the player base interested. I doubt they'll gain a lot of new players over this and I'll bet you a dollar that by summer 2012 we'll see even more bad news about the diminishing subscriber base. But hey, it wasn't meant to last forever.

To top it all off, they're offering players who subscribe to WoW for a year, a free copy of Diablo 3. That's laughable. It proves how confident Blizzard is in their Pandarian expansion. In other words, "we'll bribe you with a copy of D3 if you pay us for a year of WoW because you'll get bored with it in 2-3 months anyway". It would have been nice of them to offer this deal to anyone who, in the past, has subscribed to at least 12 months of WoW. But whatever, I'm still going to buy Diablo 3.

I'm actually glad that this next one won't be a solid, massive expansion. Otherwise I might have been tempted to try it. As it is, I'm (hopefully) going to enjoy myself to the max with Diablo 3 and I won't have to pay a monthly subscription to do so.

Finally, lease, if you leave a comment here, don't be throwing insults and such. If you are stoked about Pandaria, that's great, I'd be happy to hear why it excites you so much. If not, likewise.